On Tuesday, August 11, the Partisan Primary Election took place in Wisconsin. Statewide turnout was approximately 26% to 29% of the voting age population. That is slightly higher than turnouts in primary elections in 2024, which was 26%, and in 2022, which was between 25.5% and 25.8%.

Hoven Consulting has drafted this memo to provide you with results for state legislative and federal races of interest. As the campaign season progresses, we will provide you with a post-general election report on various races, including those at the federal level, as well as polling data.

Bearing in mind the divisive political environment nationwide, as well as the state legislative redistricting that took place in recent years, the election cycle could result in the most significant changes since the 2010 election. At this time, control of Wisconsin state government is divided. Incumbent Governor Tony Evers (D) has been in office for eight years – two terms – and has decided not to run for re-election. Republicans currently control both chambers of the state legislature. In the Senate, there are 18 Republicans and 15 Democrats. In the Assembly, there are 54 Republicans and 45 Democrats. As State Senate terms are four years, 17 of the 33 State Senate seats are on the ballot in 2026. All 99 State Assembly seats will be on the ballot this year, as those legislators serve two-year terms. If the Legislature were to flip to Democratic control, Democrats would need to win two new seats in the Senate and win five new Assembly seats.  The conventional wisdom is that there is a significant chance for the Democrats to win a majority in the State Senate. Political observers generally feel that it is possible for the Democrats to win control of the Assembly, also, but it is less likely than in the Senate. 

State Government Elections

Gubernatorial Race – Democratic Primary

The 2026 Democratic gubernatorial primary has likely been the most volatile Wisconsin primary election in recent memory. Initially, there were seven major candidates – State Rep. Francesca Hong of Madison, Lieutenant  Governor Sara Rodriguez, former Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes, Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, former Evers Administration official Joel Brennan, State Senator Kelda Roys of Madison, and former  Evers Administration official Missy Hughes. However, as of the day of the primary election, only four candidates – Hong, Crowley, Brennan, and Roys – remained in the race. Hughes and Crowley were the first two candidates to  drop out of the race. Amidst a campaign finance scandal, Rodriguez ended her candidacy. At the time, Rodriguez  was attempting to coalesce support as the mainstream Democratic alternative to Hong, who was the leading  candidate at the time in the polls. In an attempt to be the new mainstream Democratic alternative to Hong, Crowley re-entered the race, with Democratic Governor Tony Evers’ endorsement. Following that endorsement, Barnes dropped out of the race amidst media reports about his personal conduct.

In a stunning upset victory, as noted below, Crowley beat Hong by less than one percentage point on primary  election day. According to Wisconsin election law, a recount is not automatic. A losing candidate would need to formally request a recount – and in this case, since the margin of victory is greater than 0.25% - pay for it. However, that point is now moot since media reports indicate that Hong has conceded to Crowley. The winner is marked in bold font.

Democratic Primary Results

• Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley                      39.8%
• State Rep. Francesca Hong (Madison)                                    39.3%
• State Sen. Kelda Roys (Madison)                                              7.5%
• Former Evers Administration Official Joel Brennan             4.7%
• Former Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes*                  4.1%
• Lieutenant Governor Sara Rodriguez*                                    4.1%
• Former Evers Administration Official Missy Hughes*         0.4%

*While these candidates dropped out prior to primary election day, they remained on the ballot.

Gubernatorial Race - Republican Primary

In contrast to the Democratic primary, the race for the Republican primary was quite uneventful. Much earlier in the race, Milwaukee-area businessman Bill Berrien and Washington County Executive Josh Schoemann had filed to run for the Republican nomination. However, both of them ended their respective candidacies months ago. Congressman Tiffany ultimately received the coveted endorsement from President Trump, effectively making him the leading candidate for the Republican nomination. Andy Manske is generally viewed as a minor candidate due to his extremely low polling numbers. The winner is marked in bold font.

Republican Primary Results

• Congressman Tom Tiffany (Minocqua)                                 95.3%
• Medical Service Technician Andy Manske                             4.6%

Race for Lieutenant Governor

The primary winner is marked in bold font.

Republican Primary

• David Varnam                                                                              55.5%
• Will Martin                                                                                     44.3%

Democratic Primary

• Sarah Godlewski
•    This was an uncontested race.